Weighted Pipeline Forecast
Total pipeline value with each deal multiplied by its stage-based close probability — the canonical probabilistic forecast number. More forecasting-useful than raw pipeline value because it accounts for the conversion-likelihood mix across stages (early-stage deals weighted ~10–25%, mid-stage ~40–60%, late-stage ~70–90%). Common pitfall: using globally-flat probabilities (e.g. always 50%) instead of stage-specific calibrated ones — a reliable weighted forecast requires the stage probabilities to be back-tested against actual close rates from prior periods. — Sales KPI, I'mBoard-authored (editorial tier).
I'mBoard-authored (editorial tier)
No public third-party standard anchors this KPI yet, so I'mBoard authors and maintains the definition — transparently labeled as editorial tier. See the ontology methodology for the published vs editorial tier system and the back-attribution workstream.
Rogue ID: sales.weighted_forecast
Type: Currency
Domain: Sales
Definition
Total pipeline value with each deal multiplied by its stage-based close probability — the canonical probabilistic forecast number. More forecasting-useful than raw pipeline value because it accounts for the conversion-likelihood mix across stages (early-stage deals weighted ~10–25%, mid-stage ~40–60%, late-stage ~70–90%). Common pitfall: using globally-flat probabilities (e.g. always 50%) instead of stage-specific calibrated ones — a reliable weighted forecast requires the stage probabilities to be back-tested against actual close rates from prior periods.
Formula
Weighted Forecast = Σ (deal_value × stage_close_probability) across all open opportunities. Stage probabilities should be the empirical historical close rate by stage for the comparable cohort (segment / motion / quarter-of-year mix), not arbitrary fractions.Why it matters
The single most-cited number in the weekly forecast call — the team's probabilistic answer to "what will we close." Boards compare it to commit and quota to assess delivery risk.
How to interpret
Weighted forecast trending up while pipeline value is flat usually means deals are advancing through stages (good); trending flat while pipeline grows usually means new deals are entering early stages but not advancing (top-of-funnel-only growth — yellow flag). A weighted forecast meaningfully below quota mid-quarter is the canonical "you will miss without intervention" signal.
Related KPIs
sales.pipeline_valuesales.quarterly_forecastsales.pipeline_stage_metricssales.win_ratesales.closed_won_value
Source
I'mBoard editorial — authored and maintained by I'mBoard, first published 2026-04-01. No third-party standard is cited for this KPI; when one emerges, the definition is back-attributed and promoted to the published tier (a minor version bump). Read the ontology methodology for the published vs editorial tier system, attribution rules, and dispute process.
Stage relevance
| Company stage | Priority |
|---|---|
| Series A | Recommended |
| Series B | Core |
| Series C+ | Core |
| Public | Core |
Suggested for stages: Series A, Series B, Series C+, Public.
Default owning functions
- Sales
Machine-readable
- This KPI as JSON:
/api/ontology/sales/weighted_forecast.json - All Sales KPIs:
/api/ontology/sales.json - Full catalog:
/api/ontology/index.json
Recognized Revenue
Total revenue recognized under the company's accounting standard (ASC 606 / IFRS 15) during the period — distinct from billings (what was invoiced) and from ARR (an annualized run-rate snapshot). The income-statement top line and the basis for GAAP reporting. Common pitfall: confusing recognized revenue with ARR — for a company with mid-year contract starts, ARR exit will exceed recognized revenue for that year; the gap shrinks as the cohort matures. Boards reviewing a recognition-heavy investor pack should always see ARR alongside revenue to avoid mis-pricing growth. — Sales KPI, I'mBoard-authored (editorial tier).
Win Rate
Percentage of closed opportunities that resulted in closed-won (vs closed-lost) during the period. The single best read on bottom-of-funnel execution and the most direct input to pipeline-coverage math (required coverage = 1 / win rate). Common pitfall: computing win rate without disqualifying "no decision" outcomes inflates losses and depresses the rate artificially; the SaaS norm is to either bucket no-decisions separately or track a two-rate view (raw win rate vs ICP-fit win rate excluding no-decisions). Stage-segment cuts (SMB vs Enterprise) usually differ 2×–4× and should be reported separately when volume permits. — Sales KPI, I'mBoard-authored (editorial tier).