{
  "version": "1.3.0",
  "releasedAt": "2026-05-20",
  "kpi": {
    "rogueId": "sales.weighted_forecast",
    "slug": "weighted_forecast",
    "domain": "sales",
    "defaultLabel": "Weighted Pipeline Forecast",
    "description": "Total pipeline value with each deal multiplied by its stage-based close probability — the canonical probabilistic forecast number. More forecasting-useful than raw pipeline value because it accounts for the conversion-likelihood mix across stages (early-stage deals weighted ~10–25%, mid-stage ~40–60%, late-stage ~70–90%). Common pitfall: using globally-flat probabilities (e.g. always 50%) instead of stage-specific calibrated ones — a reliable weighted forecast requires the stage probabilities to be back-tested against actual close rates from prior periods.",
    "fieldType": "currency",
    "unit": null,
    "maturity": "general",
    "suggestedForStages": [
      "seriesA",
      "seriesB",
      "seriesC",
      "public"
    ],
    "defaultOwningFunctions": [
      "Sales"
    ],
    "stageRelevance": {
      "seriesA": "recommended",
      "seriesB": "core",
      "seriesC": "core",
      "public": "core"
    },
    "definitionSource": {
      "tier": "editorial",
      "sourceName": "imboard Editorial",
      "sourceUrl": null,
      "sectionRef": null,
      "publicationDate": "2026-04-01",
      "attributionNotice": null
    },
    "formula": "Weighted Forecast = Σ (deal_value × stage_close_probability) across all open opportunities. Stage probabilities should be the empirical historical close rate by stage for the comparable cohort (segment / motion / quarter-of-year mix), not arbitrary fractions.",
    "whyItMatters": "The single most-cited number in the weekly forecast call — the team's probabilistic answer to \"what will we close.\" Boards compare it to commit and quota to assess delivery risk.",
    "interpretationGuidance": "Weighted forecast trending up while pipeline value is flat usually means deals are advancing through stages (good); trending flat while pipeline grows usually means new deals are entering early stages but not advancing (top-of-funnel-only growth — yellow flag). A weighted forecast meaningfully below quota mid-quarter is the canonical \"you will miss without intervention\" signal.",
    "relatedKpiIds": [
      "sales.pipeline_value",
      "sales.quarterly_forecast",
      "sales.pipeline_stage_metrics",
      "sales.win_rate",
      "sales.closed_won_value"
    ],
    "metricBasis": {
      "timeBasis": "point_in_time",
      "production": "computed"
    }
  }
}