Quarterly Forecast
The team's expected closed-won dollars for the current quarter — usually a sales-leader judgment call informed by weighted forecast but adjusted for deal-by-deal commit confidence. Distinct from weighted_forecast (which is mechanical, stage × probability). Boards read both: a quarterly_forecast materially below weighted_forecast means the team has explicit negative judgment on specific big deals; above it means they're calling deals stronger than the stage probabilities suggest. Common pitfall: anchoring the call to plan rather than reality — boards quickly learn to discount "we will hit plan" forecasts and reward calibrated commit-vs-actual track records. — Sales KPI, I'mBoard-authored (editorial tier).
I'mBoard-authored (editorial tier)
No public third-party standard anchors this KPI yet, so I'mBoard authors and maintains the definition — transparently labeled as editorial tier. See the ontology methodology for the published vs editorial tier system and the back-attribution workstream.
Rogue ID: sales.quarterly_forecast
Type: Currency
Domain: Sales
Definition
The team's expected closed-won dollars for the current quarter — usually a sales-leader judgment call informed by weighted forecast but adjusted for deal-by-deal commit confidence. Distinct from weighted_forecast (which is mechanical, stage × probability). Boards read both: a quarterly_forecast materially below weighted_forecast means the team has explicit negative judgment on specific big deals; above it means they're calling deals stronger than the stage probabilities suggest. Common pitfall: anchoring the call to plan rather than reality — boards quickly learn to discount "we will hit plan" forecasts and reward calibrated commit-vs-actual track records.
Formula
Quarterly Forecast = Sales leadership's committed call on closed-won dollars for the current quarter. Convention: blends weighted forecast (mechanical) with deal-by-deal judgment overlays (commit / best-case adjustments). Typically reported as a single point estimate; some teams report commit / forecast / best-case ranges.Why it matters
The number the board commits against — quarter-end attainment vs this number is the primary execution scorecard. Track forecast-accuracy (forecast vs actual) over time to calibrate trust in the call.
How to interpret
Forecast attainment within ±5% over 4+ quarters = well-calibrated forecast and a leader the board can rely on. Persistent over-shoot = sandbagging (rebase quota); persistent under-shoot = forecasting / qualification problem worth a methodology change. The drift between weighted forecast and quarterly forecast is itself a signal — large gaps demand explicit explanation.
Calculation policy
How an AI agent should compute this KPI from messy company data. Free-text rules consumed at reasoning time — not a deterministic DSL. The most common ways to get this wrong are listed under Common miscomputations.
Inclusion rules
- Sales leadership's committed call on closed-won dollars for the current quarter — a point-in-time judgment number.
- Blends the mechanical weighted forecast with deal-by-deal commit / best-case judgment overlays.
- State the reporting convention explicitly (single point estimate vs commit / forecast / best-case range).
Exclusion rules
- The mechanical stage × probability number itself — that is
sales.weighted_forecast; the quarterly forecast is judgment-adjusted, not mechanical. - Unweighted pipeline capacity —
sales.pipeline_value. - Plan / quota — the forecast is a reality call, not the plan number.
Required inputs
sales.weighted_forecastas the mechanical anchor.- Deal-by-deal commit-confidence overlays from the sales team.
- Current-quarter boundaries and quota for the attainment read.
Data-source priority
- Forecast-call system / CRM forecast categories (commit / best-case).
- Sales-leadership judgment captured in the weekly forecast review.
Edge cases
- Forecast materially below weighted forecast = explicit negative judgment on specific big deals; above it = calling deals stronger than the stage probabilities — both demand an explicit explanation.
- Anchoring the call to plan rather than reality — boards quickly discount "we will hit plan" forecasts and reward calibrated commit-vs-actual track records.
Validation checks
- Track forecast accuracy (forecast vs actual
sales.closed_won_value) over 4+ quarters: within ±5% = well-calibrated; persistent over-shoot = sandbagging; persistent under-shoot = a forecasting / qualification problem. - The drift between
sales.weighted_forecastand quarterly_forecast is itself a signal — large gaps require commentary.
Common miscomputations
- Reporting the mechanical weighted forecast as the quarterly forecast (or vice versa) — they are different numbers by construction.
- Anchoring the call to plan / quota rather than to deal-by-deal reality.
- Comparing attainment against pipeline value instead of against the committed forecast.
Related KPIs
sales.weighted_forecastsales.pipeline_valuesales.closed_won_valuesales.win_ratesales.pipeline_quarterly_forecasts
Source
I'mBoard editorial — authored and maintained by I'mBoard, first published 2026-04-01. No third-party standard is cited for this KPI; when one emerges, the definition is back-attributed and promoted to the published tier (a minor version bump). Read the ontology methodology for the published vs editorial tier system, attribution rules, and dispute process.
Stage relevance
| Company stage | Priority |
|---|---|
| Series A | Recommended |
| Series B | Core |
| Series C+ | Core |
| Public | Core |
Suggested for stages: Series A, Series B, Series C+, Public.
Default owning functions
- Sales
Machine-readable
- This KPI as JSON:
/api/ontology/sales/quarterly_forecast.json - All Sales KPIs:
/api/ontology/sales.json - Full catalog:
/api/ontology/index.json
Pipeline Value
Sum of the dollar value of all active deals currently in the sales pipeline — unweighted (raw deal-value sum, not probability-weighted). Boards read this as the top-of-funnel sufficiency check: if pipeline coverage (pipeline value / forecast) drops below the historic conversion-rate-implied threshold, the forecast is at risk. Common pitfall: confusing pipeline value with weighted forecast — the unweighted number always exceeds the weighted, often by 3–5× depending on the stage mix. Always report both and the implied conversion ratio. — Sales KPI, I'mBoard-authored (editorial tier).
Starting ARR
Opening ARR at the beginning of the period — the baseline against which the period's ARR waterfall (new + expansion − downgrades − churn) reconciles to ending ARR. Equal to the prior period's closing ARR by construction. The FlowSubform widget binds starting_arr as the `start` slot of the ARR-bridge flow, and the ending position is computed as start + Σ(deltas). Common pitfall: restating starting_arr mid-period to "fix" a prior-period reporting error breaks the period-over-period audit trail; corrections should land as a separate restatement note, not by editing the opening balance. — Sales KPI, I'mBoard-authored (editorial tier).