Burn Rate Scenarios
Forecast burn-rate matrix across three scenarios — conservative (defensive cost plan, slow revenue), mostLikely (current best-estimate), bestCase (aggressive investment with strong revenue) — with gross + net burn for each. Bound to the ScenarioBurnRateMatrix widget alongside the historical `finance.burn_rate_actual` anchor. The board reads this to understand what range of cash trajectories the company is planning for and which one management has chosen as the base case. Common pitfall: the three scenarios cluster tightly (all within ±10% of each other) — that's not three scenarios, it's one scenario with rounding error. Real scenarios should reflect meaningfully different operating decisions and produce visibly different runways. — Finance KPI, I'mBoard-authored (editorial tier).
I'mBoard-authored (editorial tier)
No public third-party standard anchors this KPI yet, so I'mBoard authors and maintains the definition — transparently labeled as editorial tier. See the ontology methodology for the published vs editorial tier system and the back-attribution workstream.
Rogue ID: finance.burn_rate_scenarios
Type: Text
Domain: Finance
Definition
Forecast burn-rate matrix across three scenarios — conservative (defensive cost plan, slow revenue), mostLikely (current best-estimate), bestCase (aggressive investment with strong revenue) — with gross + net burn for each. Bound to the ScenarioBurnRateMatrix widget alongside the historical finance.burn_rate_actual anchor. The board reads this to understand what range of cash trajectories the company is planning for and which one management has chosen as the base case. Common pitfall: the three scenarios cluster tightly (all within ±10% of each other) — that's not three scenarios, it's one scenario with rounding error. Real scenarios should reflect meaningfully different operating decisions and produce visibly different runways.
Formula
Structured matrix: `{ conservative: { gross, net }, mostLikely: { gross, net }, bestCase: { gross, net } }`. Each scenario's implied runway = unrestricted_cash / scenario.net.Why it matters
Forces explicit scenario thinking and surfaces the risk-adjusted range of outcomes the board should plan for — without this, the single-number forecast invites false confidence.
How to interpret
Inspect the spread between scenarios — a conservative net burn within 10–15% of best-case usually means the team has not stress-tested its plan (industry folk-wisdom, not citation-grade). Cross-check mostLikely against finance.burn_rate_actual (trailing 3 months) — divergence > ±15–20% should be footnoted with named drivers in finance.forecast_notes.
Related KPIs
finance.burn_rate_actualfinance.net_burn_ratefinance.gross_burn_ratefinance.runway_monthsfinance.forecast_notesfinance.assumptions
Source
I'mBoard editorial — authored and maintained by I'mBoard, first published 2026-04-01. No third-party standard is cited for this KPI; when one emerges, the definition is back-attributed and promoted to the published tier (a minor version bump). Read the ontology methodology for the published vs editorial tier system, attribution rules, and dispute process.
Stage relevance
| Company stage | Priority |
|---|---|
| Pre-Seed | Core |
| Seed | Core |
| Series A | Core |
| Series B | Recommended |
Suggested for stages: Pre-Seed, Seed, Series A, Series B.
Default owning functions
- Finance
Machine-readable
- This KPI as JSON:
/api/ontology/finance/burn_rate_scenarios.json - All Finance KPIs:
/api/ontology/finance.json - Full catalog:
/api/ontology/index.json
Actual Burn Rate (Past Period)
The single past-period observed burn — gross and net — that anchors the forecast-scenario matrix. The "we just lived through this" baseline against which conservative / most-likely / best-case forecasts are projected. Differs from `finance.gross_burn_rate` and `finance.net_burn_rate` in being explicitly a point-in-time historical anchor with both components paired in one object, rather than the standalone monthly KPI values. Common pitfall: anchoring forecasts off a single month with a known one-off (large bill, prepayment received) bakes a distortion into all scenarios — pick a representative period or document the adjustment. — Finance KPI, I'mBoard-authored (editorial tier).
Current Asset Adjustments
Signed cash effect of period-over-period changes in current assets — accounts receivable, prepaid expenses, deposits, and other short-term assets. Positive when assets are converting back to cash (AR collections, prepaid expenses being consumed); negative when assets are growing and absorbing cash (AR balance up, new prepayments made). Half of the `finance.net_working_capital_adjustment` rollup. Common pitfall: a one-off enterprise prepayment to a vendor (e.g. 12-month infra commit) shows up here as a large negative without the P&L showing the cost yet — flag it explicitly so the board does not read deterioration where there is none. — Finance KPI, I'mBoard-authored (editorial tier).