{
  "version": "1.3.0",
  "releasedAt": "2026-05-20",
  "kpi": {
    "rogueId": "finance.burn_rate_scenarios",
    "slug": "burn_rate_scenarios",
    "domain": "finance",
    "defaultLabel": "Burn Rate Scenarios",
    "description": "Forecast burn-rate matrix across three scenarios — conservative (defensive cost plan, slow revenue), mostLikely (current best-estimate), bestCase (aggressive investment with strong revenue) — with gross + net burn for each. Bound to the ScenarioBurnRateMatrix widget alongside the historical `finance.burn_rate_actual` anchor. The board reads this to understand what range of cash trajectories the company is planning for and which one management has chosen as the base case. Common pitfall: the three scenarios cluster tightly (all within ±10% of each other) — that's not three scenarios, it's one scenario with rounding error. Real scenarios should reflect meaningfully different operating decisions and produce visibly different runways.",
    "fieldType": "text",
    "unit": null,
    "maturity": "general",
    "suggestedForStages": [
      "preSeed",
      "seed",
      "seriesA",
      "seriesB"
    ],
    "defaultOwningFunctions": [
      "Finance"
    ],
    "stageRelevance": {
      "preSeed": "core",
      "seed": "core",
      "seriesA": "core",
      "seriesB": "recommended"
    },
    "definitionSource": {
      "tier": "editorial",
      "sourceName": "imboard Editorial",
      "sourceUrl": null,
      "sectionRef": null,
      "publicationDate": "2026-04-01",
      "attributionNotice": null
    },
    "formula": "Structured matrix: `{ conservative: { gross, net }, mostLikely: { gross, net }, bestCase: { gross, net } }`. Each scenario's implied runway = unrestricted_cash / scenario.net.",
    "whyItMatters": "Forces explicit scenario thinking and surfaces the risk-adjusted range of outcomes the board should plan for — without this, the single-number forecast invites false confidence.",
    "interpretationGuidance": "Inspect the spread between scenarios — a conservative net burn within 10–15% of best-case usually means the team has not stress-tested its plan (industry folk-wisdom, not citation-grade). Cross-check `mostLikely` against `finance.burn_rate_actual` (trailing 3 months) — divergence > ±15–20% should be footnoted with named drivers in `finance.forecast_notes`.",
    "relatedKpiIds": [
      "finance.burn_rate_actual",
      "finance.net_burn_rate",
      "finance.gross_burn_rate",
      "finance.runway_months",
      "finance.forecast_notes",
      "finance.assumptions"
    ]
  }
}