{
  "version": "1.3.0",
  "releasedAt": "2026-05-20",
  "kpi": {
    "rogueId": "product.delivery_predictability",
    "slug": "delivery_predictability",
    "domain": "product",
    "defaultLabel": "Delivery Predictability",
    "description": "Percentage of committed deliverables shipped on or before the originally-promised date within a measurement window (typically a quarter). Surfaces whether the engineering organization can be trusted to hit commitments the company makes externally — to customers in contracts, to the board in quarterly plans, to GTM teams sequencing launches. Common pitfall: gaming. Teams over-deliver by under-promising (predictability climbs while velocity drops) or move the goalposts (re-baseline mid-quarter so \"on-time\" stays high). Boards should ask for \"predictability against original commitment\", not \"against current plan\", and pair with throughput trends.",
    "fieldType": "percentage",
    "unit": "%",
    "maturity": "general",
    "suggestedForStages": [
      "seriesA",
      "seriesB",
      "seriesC",
      "public"
    ],
    "defaultOwningFunctions": [
      "R&D",
      "Product"
    ],
    "stageRelevance": {
      "seriesA": "core",
      "seriesB": "core",
      "seriesC": "core",
      "public": "core"
    },
    "definitionSource": {
      "tier": "editorial",
      "sourceName": "imboard Editorial",
      "sourceUrl": null,
      "sectionRef": null,
      "publicationDate": "2026-04-01",
      "attributionNotice": null
    },
    "benchmark": {
      "p25": 55,
      "median": 70,
      "p75": 85,
      "unit": "%",
      "sourceName": "imboard Editorial",
      "sourceYear": "2026",
      "higherIsBetter": true
    },
    "formula": "delivery_predictability_pct = (commitments_delivered_on_time / total_commitments) × 100, measured against the originally-promised date (not the most recently re-baselined date). Define \"on time\" explicitly — within the promised week, sprint, or quarter — and apply consistently.",
    "whyItMatters": "Predictability is the contract between engineering and the rest of the business. When it slips, GTM cannot sequence launches, sales cannot promise dates, and the board cannot trust the quarterly plan. Sustained low predictability is a leading indicator of either capacity mismatch, planning hygiene problems, or accumulated technical debt.",
    "interpretationGuidance": "Industry folk-wisdom, not citation-grade: 70–85% predictability is typical for healthy growth-stage engineering organizations; 90%+ usually means sandbagging (commitments are too soft); below 60% means the planning process is broken or capacity is mismatched. Trend matters more than absolute level — a stable 75% is healthier than a 90% sliding to 70% quarter-over-quarter.",
    "relatedKpiIds": [
      "product.key_initiatives_status",
      "product.capacity_allocation_pct",
      "product.innovation_capacity_pct",
      "product.scalability_headroom"
    ],
    "metricBasis": {
      "timeBasis": "period_flow",
      "production": "computed"
    }
  }
}